mostly palaver

Economy

Not going to get better any time soon.  Haven't blogged on it (or anything, sorry) for a while, but here is my stat for today:

Home heating oil futures are currently trading at $3.90/gallon.  Add some amount for retail distribution ($1.00?) and you've got $5.00/gallon oil this winter. 

There is no Christmas with $5.00/gallon oil, at least not in the Northeast.

Pass the chips

This is going to be fun:

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - Anheuser-Busch Co <BUD.N> is expected to reject InBev NV's <INTB.BR> unsolicited $46.3 billion offer as too low and outline its own restructuring plan, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

The U.S. brewer plans to map out its own restructuring plan soon that would include the sale of nonessential assets such its theme parks in an effort to boost its stock price, the newspaper reported in its online edition, citing people familiar with the matter.

It'll be fun to watch this if it gets nasty, after all, they speak FRENCH in parts of Belgium for God's sake!

Bad Government

In another forum I've been following a conversation about government, specifically the ineptness and corruption of government.  In a number of different threads, a common theme that emerges is that government is essentially useless at best, working against its citizens at worst.  

These people aren't U of Chicago small government types either, I get the impression that they are not really hostile to government, simply hostile to bad government.  

I've been mulling over a response for a bit, and think my answer will be something like this:

It really isn't a mystery why things are the way they are, nor should they be a surprise to anyone who's been paying attention.  Starting in 1980 with Reagan (The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.) accelerating in 1994 with the Gingrich revolution ("The idea that a congressman would be tainted by accepting money from private industry or private sources is essentially a socialist argument.”) and continuing into today with Norquist et. al. ("Our goal is to shrink government to the size where we can drown it in a bathtub.") we've filled the government with people who are, at best, ambivalent to the ability of government to improve people's lives, at worst openly hostile to it.  And if you are in charge of running something you don't really believe in, well, you are going to fuck it up. 

And that is my thesis in a nutshell.  Fill the government with people who believe in the power of government to positively impact people's lives and it will do so.  Fill it with the opposite, and you'll get a bunch of careless, corrupt bureaucrats who are in it solely for themselves and their cronies. 

I will be expanding on this at some point, but didn't want to lose the basic point.

Sign of the times?

I saw this bumper sticker this morning:

Horn broken, watch for finger

On the back of a Toyota Yaris.

Well they always said that Stella was the Bud of Belgium

We'll see if this goes through.  They don't like foreign companies producing our Air Force planes, can they be OK with Brazilians making Budweiser?

A deal, if reached, would combine Anheuser-Busch’s best-selling Budweiser and Bud Light brands with InBev’s Stella Artois, Beck’s and Bass and would create the world’s largest brewer, with distribution channels around the globe.

InBev’s bid is likely to set off a bitter battle for control of Anheuser-Busch, based in St. Louis, which has been led by the Anheuser and Busch families for 148 years. The company, led by a scion of the Busch family, August A. Busch IV, has signaled that it will fight a takeover. In recent weeks, in anticipation of InBev’s bid, privately called Project Aluminum, Anheuser-Busch has hired an army of bankers, lawyers and other advisers to help it mount a defense.

The battle may stir a national debate filled with patriotic fervor over a company ingrained in the American consciousness. Anheuser-Busch spends more money than any other advertiser during the Super Bowl each year; last year alone, it spent $23.9 million, according to TNS, a market research company.

Of course I was kidding about patriotism thing, but it'll be interesting to see how this plays out - if people are really going to get outraged at Bud being Belgian/Brazilian.

Drip, drip

Today's events:

The struggling investment bank, Lehman Brothers, shook up its management on Thursday as it tries to win back the confidence of Wall Street. The bank said its chief operating officer and president, Joseph M. Gregory, and its chief financial officer, Erin Callan, had been removed from their posts.Ian Lowitt, 44, now a co-chief administrative officer, will succeed Ms. Callan, the bank said, and Herbert H. McDade III, 48, global head of equities, will succeed Mr. Gregory.

Going to help?  Not at all. 

Lehman

Lehman is in trouble.  They rushed out an earnings report that showed a loss 10X what they were whispering to the Street to try to get all the bad news out as they announced they had raised additional capital.  It didn't work:

Merrill Lynch downgraded its rating on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc to "neutral" from "buy" on Wednesday, just a week after upgrading the stock, and Lehman shares fell 8.4 percent.

Merrill analysts Guy Moszkowski and Patrick Davitt lowered their price target to $28 from $36, saying Lehman's "business mix is poor for this environment," according to a research note obtained by Reuters.

Big trouble.  And the shorts are not getting the hammering that Fuld was threatening to put on them.

BTW, FWIW,  I still can't get over how each of these companies can rate each other.  It's amazing that Merrill or Goldman or any other firm can downgrade Lehman when they have so much to gain from a Lehman going out of business.  Maybe this is one of those business things I don't understand, but the situation seems rife with conflicts of interest.

Dope

Boonen is out of the Tour of Switzerland and, more importantly, the Tour de France:

Tom Boonen knew that his participation to the 2008 Tour de France was in doubt after the news of his positive test for cocaine broke. He and his Quick Step team hoped some time after the news would enable Amary Sport Organziation (ASO) to give Boonen consideration and allow him to participate in the Tour de France, but their approach didn't work.

ASO would have liked the Belgian team to decide to leave Boonen at home in July. However, the team's different decision forced the organization to ban the winner of Paris-Roubaix from the July Grand Tour. "We had to wait for their press conference," Tour de France director Christian Prudhomme explained. Decision makers in Paris and the Belgian rider and his team managers communicated by phone. "We wanted to hear Tom Boonen, Patrick Lefévère and Wilfried Peeters. We have told them it was not possible for Tom to ride the Tour de France this year."

It's pretty simple, he can't ride the Tour after having been found breaking the law for a drug offense.  Not this year, and probably not any year.  It was stupid for Tommeke.

He was the defending green jersey too, that competition is going to be wide open now. 

The General Election

Here's what I'd like to do.  About once a week, I'm going to pick a topic and then see what each of the candidates has to say about it.  I am an unapologetic Obama supporter, but will try to be as evenhanded as I can - but no promises.  With gas at $4.00/gallon and diesel at over $5.00/gallon, today's topic is energy.  First, John McCain:

Across America, families are facing economic challenges. Gas prices are rising, mortgages are threatened, and thousands have lost their jobs. Now is the time to act and John McCain has outlined several near-term, tangible plans to address some of the challenges confronting Americans today.

Helping Americans Confront Higher Living Costs:

John McCain Will Help Americans Hurting From High Gasoline And Food Costs. Americans need relief right now from high gas prices. John McCain will act immediately to reduce the pain of high gas prices.

John McCain Believes We Should Institute A Summer Gas Tax Holiday. Hard-working American families are suffering from higher gasoline prices. John McCain calls on Congress to suspend the 18.4 cent federal gas tax and 24.4 cent diesel tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day.

John McCain Will Stop Filling The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) To Reduce Demand. International demand for oil is bolstered by federal purchases for the SPR.

There is no reason to fill it when oil is so expensive; the overall SPR is of adequate size, and when it places further upward pressure on prices.

John McCain Will End Policies That Contribute To Higher Transportation And Food Costs. Ethanol subsidies, tariff barriers and sugar quotas drive up food prices and hurt Americans. However, we cannot take the wrong direction and cut off trade for American goods.

That's it.  He will enact a summer gas tax holiday from Memorial Day to Labor Day (even though Memorial Day 2008 was last month, would people get a retroactive tax break?) which we've already taken down as worthless at best, a cynical pander that would actually aid the oil companies while actually hurting American drivers at worst.  He will stop filling the SPR.  Bush actually stopped filling the SPR a couple of weeks ago so this is not a new policy.  He will end policies that contribute to higher transportation and food costs.  Sounds good.  Which ones?  And how will that lower transportation costs? 

It's a meaningless, vague and ill-thought out plan.  And embarassing when compared to Obama's:

Reduce Carbon Emissions 80 Percent by 2050

• Cap and Trade: Obama supports implementation of a market-based cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon emissions by the amount scientists say is necessary: 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Obama's cap-and-trade system will require all pollution credits to be auctioned. A 100 percent auction ensures that all polluters pay for every ton of emissions they release, rather than giving these emission rights away to coal and oil companies. Some of the revenue generated by auctioning allowances will be used to support the development of clean energy, to invest in energy efficiency improvements, and to address transition costs, including helping American workers affected by this economic transition.

• Confront Deforestation and Promote Carbon Sequestration: Obama will develop domestic incentives that reward forest owners, farmers, and ranchers when they plant trees, restore grasslands, or undertake farming practices that capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Invest in a Clean Energy Future

• Invest $150 Billion over 10 Years in Clean Energy: Obama will invest $150 billion over 10 years to advance the next generation of biofuels and fuel infrastructure, accelerate the commercialization of plug-in hybrids, promote development of commercial-scale renewable energy, invest in low-emissions coal plants, and begin the transition to a new digital electricity grid. A principal focus of this fund will be devoted to ensuring that technologies that are developed in the U.S. are rapidly commercialized in the U.S. and deployed around the globe.

• Double Energy Research and Development Funding: Obama will double science and research funding for clean energy projects including those that make use of our biomass, solar and wind resources.

• Invest in a Skilled Clean Technologies Workforce: Obama will use proceeds from the cap-and-trade auction program to invest in job training and transition programs to help workers and industries adapt to clean technology development and production. Obama will also create an energy-focused Green Jobs Corps to connect disconnected and disadvantaged youth with job skills for a high-growth industry.

• Convert our Manufacturing Centers into Clean Technology Leaders: Obama will establish a federal investment program to help manufacturing centers modernize and Americans learn the new skills they need to produce green products.

• Clean Technologies Deployment Venture Capital Fund: Obama will create a Clean Technologies Venture Capital Fund to fill a critical gap in U.S. technology development. Obama will invest $10 billion per year into this fund for five years. The fund will partner with existing investment funds and our National Laboratories to ensure that promising technologies move beyond the lab and are commercialized in the U.S

• Require 25 Percent of Renewable Electricity by 2025: Obama will establish a 25 percent federal Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to require that 25 percent of electricity consumed in the U.S. is derived from clean, sustainable energy sources, like solar, wind and geothermal by 2025.

• Develop and Deploy Clean Coal Technology: Obama will significantly increase the resources devoted to the commercialization and deployment of low-carbon coal technologies. Obama will consider whatever policy tools are necessary, including standards that ban new traditional coal facilities, to ensure that we move quickly to commercialize and deploy low carbon coal technology.

Support Next Generation Biofuels

• Deploy Cellulosic Ethanol: Obama will invest federal resources, including tax incentives, cash prizes and government contracts into developing the most promising technologies with the goal of getting the first two billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol into the system by 2013.

• Expand Locally-Owned Biofuel Refineries: Less than 10 percent of new ethanol production today is from farmer-owned refineries. New ethanol refineries help jumpstart rural economies. Obama will create a number of incentives for local communities to invest in their biofuels refineries.

• Establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard: Barack Obama will establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard to speed the introduction of low-carbon non-petroleum fuels. The standard requires fuels suppliers to reduce the carbon their fuel emits by ten percent by 2020.

• Increase Renewable Fuel Standard: Obama will require 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels to be included in the fuel supply by 2022 and will increase that to at least 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels like cellulosic ethanol by 2030.

Set America on Path to Oil Independence

Obama's plan will reduce oil consumption by at least 35 percent, or 10 million barrels per day, by 2030. This will more than offset the equivalent of the oil we would import from OPEC nations in 2030.

• Increase Fuel Economy Standards: Obama will double fuel economy standards within 18 years. His plan will provide retooling tax credits and loan guarantees for domestic auto plants and parts manufacturers, so that they can build new fuel-efficient cars rather than overseas companies. Obama will also invest in advanced vehicle technology such as advanced lightweight materials and new engines.

Improve Energy Efficiency 50 Percent by 2030

• Set National Building Efficiency Goals: Barack Obama will establish a goal of making all new buildings carbon neutral, or produce zero emissions, by 2030. He'll also establish a national goal of improving new building efficiency by 50 percent and existing building efficiency by 25 percent over the next decade to help us meet the 2030 goal.

• Establish a Grant Program for Early Adopters: Obama will create a competitive grant program to award those states and localities that take the first steps to implement new building codes that prioritize energy efficiency.

• Invest in a Digital Smart Grid: Obama will pursue a major investment in our utility grid to enable a tremendous increase in renewable generation and accommodate modern energy requirements, such as reliability, smart metering, and distributed storage

Restore U.S. Leadership on Climate Change

• Create New Forum of Largest Greenhouse Gas Emitters: Obama will create a Global Energy Forum — that includes all G-8 members plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa –the largest energy consuming nations from both the developed and developing world. The forum would focus exclusively on global energy and environmental issues.

• Re-Engage with the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change: The UNFCCC process is the main international forum dedicated to addressing the climate problem and an Obama administration will work constructively within it.

Barack Obama's Record

• Renewable Fuels: Obama has worked on numerous efforts in the Senate to increase access to and use of renewable fuels. Obama passed legislation with Senator Jim Talent (R-MO) to give gas stations a tax credit for installing E85 ethanol refueling pumps. The tax credit covers 30 percent of the costs of switching one or more traditional petroleum pumps to E85, which is an 85 percent ethanol/15 percent gasoline blend. Obama also sponsored an amendment that became law providing $40 million for commercialization of a combined flexible fuel vehicle/hybrid car within five years.

• CAFE: Obama introduced a bold new plan that brought Republicans and Democrats, CAFE supporters and long-time opponents together in support of legislation that will gradually increase fuel economy standards and offer what the New York Times editorial page called "real as opposed to hypothetical results."

Not enough detail?  Read the full report here.

Clearly one of these two candidates has given this issue some thought and is willing to put details out there for people to see and react to.  McCain's plan does have some merit, I like an energy plan that is pithy and fits on a napkin, but I think I'd rather go with the guy who is giving me something specific to evaluate.

Bad few weeks

For cyclist Tom Boonen:

Belgian super star sprinter, Tom Boonen has allegedly been caught in an out of competition test for cocaine, according to Belgian newspaper HLN.be. The out of competition test allegedly occurred three days before start of the Tour of Belgium, where Boonen won the final stage.

The Belgian paper also reported that the homes of Boonen's parents and girlfriend in Postel and Lore respectively were searched last night. The non-negative test has also not yet been confirmed by the International Cycling Union (UCI). Boonen's Quick Step team was unavailable for comment at the time of going to press.

This is not the first time that Boonen has been linked to the drug. Last December, his good friend and cyclo-cross star, Tom Vanoppen was caught by the Flemish doping controllers with cocaine. During questioning Vanoppen allegedly named Boonen as his dealer, a claim Boonen later denied. Following the claim, Boonen's parent's house was searched.

Boonen's brush with the law does not stop there however. Just last week, he lost his drivers license for the second time in six weeks. On Tuesday night he was pulled over by the police travelling at 180 km/h in a 90km/h zone on the Mol ring road. He had a blood alcohol reading of 1.0.

Six weeks earlier he lost his license for 14 days for travelling 120km/h in a 70km/h zone. In 2006 Boonen was the face of the Belgian roads and traffic authority, promoting safe driving.